WW3

World War II was the most lethal war ever, and World War I does not rank far behind. Both world wars have occurred in the twentieth century. How far fetched is it to say that the third one is right around the corner? In light of our sad human history, only a fool would rule out the possibility that we would war amongst ourselves one more time.

The good news is that the world has enjoyed a long-term decline in the number of battle deaths, as well as decreases across a broad array of violence indicators including homicides, lynchings, and the prevalence of slavery and the death penalty. One should also note that the world wars have had great powers fighting one another, but today great-power wars have nearly evaporated from the world scene.

However, modern technologies like nuclear weapons can empower violent groups far beyond what has been possible throughout most of human history. Today nuclear bombs are hundreds of times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima, and it would take only one to start a chain reaction of retaliation.

Additionally, the production of weapons in preparation for war has not stopped or slowed down. China has built more warships and warplanes than any other nation during the last several years, and to offset them the U.S. has announced a new generation of high-tech weapons.

One world war happened through deliberate action, the other was a crisis that spun out of control. In the coming decades, a war might ignite accidentally, or it could slowly burn and erupt as a reordering of the future global system. When China’s military build up is finally on pace to match the U.S. a great power conflict could be quite different from the small wars of today that the U.S. has grow accustomed to. This may prove to be a new American weakness. Unlike the Taliban or even Saddam’s Iraq, great powers can fight across all the domains, but the last time the U.S. fought a peer in the air or at sea was in 1945.

Furthermore, cyber warfare would be used for the takedown of the modern military nervous system and digital weapons. Weapons of mass destruction could be remotely controlled or hacked. Alternatively, government computers could be hacked and made to appear as if the country was being attacked by another, in which case a panicked general might just fire off a few retaliatory rockets before what he thought was his demise.